A Statistical Look forward to the End of the Season

This was all calculated by Goal.com, probably based on expected goals (xG) using statistics from Opta. That’s a guess but not sure how else you would go about it. Here we go:

Chance of taking the title:

  1. Palmeiras – 36.4%
  2. Santos – 17.1%
  3. Atlético MG – 13.9%
  4. Grêmio – 12.7%
  5. Flamengo – 8.4%
  6. Corinthians – 6.5%

Chance of finishing in the top-four and qualifying for next year’s Libertadores:

  1. Palmeiras – 80.8%
  2. Santos – 63.1%
  3. Atlético MG – 57.4%
  4. Grêmio – 56%
  5. Flamengo – 44.3%
  6. Corinthians – 38.8%
  7. Atlético PR – 15.5%
  8. Ponte Preta – 14.1%
  9. Fluminense – 12.1%

Chance of being relegated to Série B:

  1. América MG – 91.8%
  2. Santa Cruz – 59.9%
  3. Cruzeiro – 52.1%
  4. Figueirense – 36.6%
  5. Internacional – 34.4%
  6. Vitória – 31.5%
  7. Coritiba – 30.9%
  8. Botafogo – 16.5%

This seems mostly to give credence to what everybody already thought; it’s going to be an exciting title race! Palmeiras are favourites but there are still several teams in with a shout. Some people would probably have given Corinthians a bit more of a chance but it looks as if their lack of a good centre-forward has let them down on the ‘xG-for’ statistic.

Atlético PR and Ponte Preta remain in with an outside chance of Copa Libertadores football next year after their strong campaigns, as do Fluminense, who have won three of their last five after a poor start to the season.

At the other end of the table it looks as if América should start planning for life back in the second tier and as if Mano Menezes will have his work cut out to save Cruzeiro from the drop for a second time. However, with their new signings things might be looking up for a Raposa in a few weeks time. Coritiba and in particular new Botafogo manager Jair Ventura will be pleased to see their percentages looking relatively low.

Sport, Chapecoense and the inert São Paulo are the only ones to escape from the possibility of any excitement at either end the table, which shows how close the races for the title, the top-four and to avoid relegation are this year in Série A.

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